Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by August 31, 2026, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is officially deemed to have returned to "normal." For the purpose of this market, "returning to normal" is defined by meeting any of the following verifiable conditions on or before August 31, 2026:

1. Threat Level Downgrade: The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) lowers the maritime security threat level for the Strait of Hormuz to "Moderate" or "Low" (down from its June 2026 "Substantial" rating), and it remains at or below this level as of August 31, 2026.

2. Transit Volume Rebound: Major maritime monitoring agencies (such as S&P Global Commodity Insights, Lloyd's List, or the International Maritime Organization) report that daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have reached a 7-day average of 110 vessels or more (approaching the pre-conflict average of ~130/day) at any point in August 2026.

3. Removal of Listed War Risks: The Joint War Committee (JWC) of the Lloyd's Market Association officially removes the Persian/Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or the Strait of Hormuz from its "Listed Areas" (reversing the additions made under circular JWLA-033 in March 2026).

4. Resumption of Standard TSS: The temporary, restricted southern (Omani) and northern (Iranian) shipping corridors are dissolved, and standard, unescorted passage via the original Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) is restored.

If none of these conditions are met by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis began on February 28, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli air strikes against Iran, leading to an Iranian blockade of the waterway. Prior to the conflict, approximately 20% of global oil and LNG transited the strait daily (~130 ships). Since the crisis began, shipping has been severely disrupted, prompting the Joint War Committee (JWC) to add the region to its War Listed Areas (JWLA-033) and the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) to raise the threat level to "Critical".

While a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed on June 17, 2026, and brief progress saw transit volume recover to a post-conflict high of 78 ships on June 24, subsequent drone attacks on the Ever Lovely (June 25) and the VLCC Kiku (June 27) led the JMIC to raise the threat level back to "Substantial". Demining operations and disputes over the administrative control of the waterway continue to stall a complete return to pre-war transit levels.

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