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MANIFOLD
On July 26th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
20
Ṁ1kṀ7.2k
Jul 26
48%
x ≥ 10
10%
x ≥ 20
2%
x ≥ 30
1%
x ≥ 50
1%
x ≥ 60
1%
x ≥ 40
1%
x ≥ 70

Question

On July 26th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

Resolution Criteria

Let x be the 7-day average ships passing on through the Strait of Hormuz on July 26th 2026. Using IMF PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the inequality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise.

If the data are not available by end of day August 28th, I will resolve each market to NA.

Market context
Iran
Middle East
Israel-Iran Conflict
Iranian Politics
Shipping
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sold Ṁ10 YES

the open was announced june 19th. This asks for july 26th. The 7 day average would take into account the days from july 19th-july26th. For the the slower ships from the usa, it takes a bit less than a month to reach there so they will reach the straight of hormuz by july 19th. And the usa is one of the most far away countries. so I think some high bets would be reasonable

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