Resolves YES if the conflict ends, but ships still pay fees to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The payments should be a part of what I deem to be a normalized process in the post-war period for this to resolve YES.

To determine if the conflict ends, I will use the resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by or of a similar market with expiration dates beyond December 31st. If there is no such substantially similar market, and the existing Polymarket answers resolve to NO, I will use a consensus of credible reporting to determine roughly when the conflict ends.

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?

$13,360,158 has traded on "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?" as of April 4, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™...