Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, as of 12:00 PM UTC on January 1st, 2027, the government of Iran or entities acting under its authority (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) are actively requiring or enforcing the payment of tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through any part of the Strait of Hormuz. The market will resolve to NO if such a regime is not in effect at that time.

Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible international reporting (e.g., major news outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, or maritime industry monitors like Lloyd's List Intelligence). Clear evidence of a functional, officially sanctioned, or de facto toll collection system—where passage is conditioned upon payment—will satisfy the criteria for a YES.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Under international law, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the strait is considered an international waterway where vessels enjoy the right of transit passage, which generally prohibits the imposition of tolls or discriminatory restrictions by coastal states.

In March 2026, amid heightened regional conflict, Iran began implementing a de facto "toll booth" regime for commercial shipping. This system involves requiring vessels to undergo "geopolitical vetting," submit detailed cargo and crew information to IRGC-affiliated intermediaries, and follow specific, escorted routes through Iranian territorial waters near Qeshm and Larak islands. While Iran has formalised this via domestic legislation, international legal experts and various nations maintain that such actions lack a basis in international law. Whether this system remains in place by January 2027 depends on the evolution of regional diplomatic, military, and economic conditions.

This description was generated by AI.