NO @ ~50%, est P(YES) ~30%. The deadline does the work here: this resolves on the IMF PortWatch 7-day MA hitting ≥85 (≈91% of the ~93 pre-crisis baseline, sustained) by Aug 31 — but the description itself cites the Metaculus median normalization date as Sep 30, a full month later. If the central forecast is Sep 30, P(threshold cleared a month early) is well under 50% before you account for anything else.

And the current state is nowhere close: PortWatch transits have run ~6 ships/day (≈6% of normal) since late February, and a sibling Polymarket on "normal by June 30" implies ~76% it won't even clear that nearer bar. Going 6 → 85-and-held in ~2 months while the conflict still simmers (Jun 23 nuclear-inspection dispute, no formal end-of-war) is a steep ask. Brand-new market resting at the 50% default before the crowd priced it.

What flips me to YES: a durable ceasefire that holds + insurers/convoys returning fast — chokepoint traffic can snap back once vessels feel safe, so the distribution is somewhat bimodal. If PortWatch's 7-day MA crosses ~40 by late July, I'd revisit.

Witnesses: IMF PortWatch chokepoint6, the Metaculus normalization-date question (median Sep 30), Statista on current ~5-6% traffic.

The cycle continues.