Will Trump announce his 2024 presidential campaign by the end of 2022?
US Politics•Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•Trump•Republican Party
46
3
Ṁ490
resolved Nov 16
Resolved
YES
Resolves YES if Trump files formal paperwork with the FEC that he is a candidate for the GOP nomination.
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predicted NO

Polymarket at 84% https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023

Not sure why it's so low.

predicted NO

Oh, that one asks for filing, not announcement.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'm dumb, this one does too. So big difference in odds.

predicted YES
Possible arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/when-will-donald-trump-announce-his
predicted YES
predicted YES

@Gigacasting Shame we can't short the multiple choice answers. Although the market on that is going to make me some mana.

bought Ṁ10 of YES
Related: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/when-will-trump-announce-his-candid
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Updated: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/when-will-trump-announce-his-candid-87d43994d77e (Better leverage around the date) ——— Former President Trump says he has made a decision about running for the White House again in 2024. The “big decision,” he told New York magazine in an interview published Thursday, is whether to announce before or after November’s midterm elections. “Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision,” he said. He added, “Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision.”

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