If Trump wins the 2024 election, will he leave office before the end of his term?
5
100Ṁ1292028
19%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Possible reasons include impeachement or death.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Trump leave the United States in 2025?
99% chance
Will Trump serve a full second term (after winning in 2024)?
76% chance
If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?
If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be impeached and removed from office by January 31, 2026?
5% chance
Will Trump serve until the end of his term in 2028?
77% chance
Will Donald Trump still be in power in February 2029?
7% chance
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will he still be the president on January 21st, 2029?
10% chance
When will Trump leave office as President?
How will Trump leave office?
Will Trump resign prior to the end of his term?
12% chance