Will the failure of a SpaceX rocket result in a human casualty by the end of 2023
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

This seems really cheap, given expanded plans for launches.

@StrayClimb And, you know, absentee leadership...

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@BTE I actually think Gwynne Shotwell is more capable without Musk around to second guess her

predicted YES

@ForrestTaylor Great point

predicted YES

@ForrestTaylor This is a statistics question really.

predicted YES

@ForrestTaylor Failure rate on the shuttle was like 1/52 or something. Soyuz much better like 1/600. Dragon??