Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the failure of a SpaceX rocket result in a human casualty by the end of 2023
54
Ṁ1kṀ14k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Market context
SpaceX
Space
Elon musk
New Year's Resolutions 2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ75
2Ṁ74
3Ṁ57
4Ṁ27
5Ṁ22

People are also trading

Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?
2% chance
SpaceX kills a human in a rocket by 2035
37% chance
Will a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035?
60% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
48% chance
Will a human die in space by 2035?
58% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2040?
78% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
11% chance
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
53% chance
Sort by:

This seems really cheap, given expanded plans for launches.

@StrayClimb And, you know, absentee leadership...

@BTE I actually think Gwynne Shotwell is more capable without Musk around to second guess her

predictedYES

@ForrestTaylor Great point

predictedYES

@ForrestTaylor This is a statistics question really.

predictedYES

@ForrestTaylor Failure rate on the shuttle was like 1/52 or something. Soyuz much better like 1/600. Dragon??

People are also trading

Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?
36% chance
Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?
2% chance
SpaceX kills a human in a rocket by 2035
37% chance
Will a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035?
60% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
48% chance
Will a human die in space by 2035?
58% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2040?
78% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully conduct a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
11% chance
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
53% chance