SpaceX kills a human in a rocket by 2035
Standard
21
Ṁ1014
2035
31%
chance

Resolves yes if a SpaceX rocket explodes on the launch pad or in flight and results in the loss of life of at least one person by 2035.

Other in flight disasters can count that aren’t exactly “explosions” such as depressurizations

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Ṁ1,000
and
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There were 381 crewed flights total and 5 disasters that would qualify. Outside of Space Shuttle program there were no fatalities since 1971. Two of 135 shuttle missions failed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents

Falcon 9 completed 300 missions, Crew Dragon - 12. Crew Dragon has a launch escape system, which should separate the capsule from the rocket in case of anomaly on ascent.

Now, Elon has said that Spaceship won't have a launch escape system, and it won't land using parachutes. This is a bit worrying but this vehicle will first be tested in dozens if not hundreds unmanned flights - a luxury we didn't have historically. (Or plans might change)

Tl;dr this is completely mispriced, should be <10%

@nikstar Hopefully you're right.

Workplace accidents at the factory do not count?

I think you can modify your title to help clarify what does and does not count.

@Eliza I added “in a rocket” to the title. I think it was already clear in the description

@GabeGarboden Much appreciated! I think it's important because someone else might have a similar market that includes things like workplace accidents, bystanders, etc.

I think the market is even better with the new title anyway.

Is this really just for rockets exploding, or would it count other kinds of in-flight accidents? Like if a Crew Dragon depressurized on orbit or a Starship carrying people disintegrated during reentry, would this resolve YES? What about an explosion in a factory rather than on the launchpad?

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge Yes, I'd consider an in flight disaster/malfunction of the spacecraft as yes. Factory explosion doesn't count. And on the launch pad I mean killing the people inside the rocket, not any bystanders.