Resolves yes if a SpaceX rocket explodes on the launch pad or in flight and results in the loss of life of at least one person by 2035.
Other in flight disasters can count that aren’t exactly “explosions” such as depressurizations
There were 381 crewed flights total and 5 disasters that would qualify. Outside of Space Shuttle program there were no fatalities since 1971. Two of 135 shuttle missions failed.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents
Falcon 9 completed 300 missions, Crew Dragon - 12. Crew Dragon has a launch escape system, which should separate the capsule from the rocket in case of anomaly on ascent.
Now, Elon has said that Spaceship won't have a launch escape system, and it won't land using parachutes. This is a bit worrying but this vehicle will first be tested in dozens if not hundreds unmanned flights - a luxury we didn't have historically. (Or plans might change)
Tl;dr this is completely mispriced, should be <10%
Workplace accidents at the factory do not count?
I think you can modify your title to help clarify what does and does not count.
@GabeGarboden Much appreciated! I think it's important because someone else might have a similar market that includes things like workplace accidents, bystanders, etc.
I think the market is even better with the new title anyway.
@sesquipedalianThaumaturge Yes, I'd consider an in flight disaster/malfunction of the spacecraft as yes. Factory explosion doesn't count. And on the launch pad I mean killing the people inside the rocket, not any bystanders.