Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?

Ukraine-Russia war•Global Macro

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Resolves YES if any part of Russian breaks off from the motherland and forms a new state, similar to what happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by the end of 2024.

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Related to current events:

https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw

Will Ukraine take Grayvoron this week?

60% chance. Context, as this is just unfolding: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA Russian separatists seem to cooperate with Ukraine and took the border checkpoint at Kozinka. They seem to be carrying out operations on russian soil in order to…

predicts YES

So something along the lines of a part of Russia breaking off and joining an already existing state would not resolve as YES? (E.g., if Pechorsky District declares its intension of reuniting with Estonia)

@Treldman Correct, that would not count. This is about breaking off new states that stand alone. Chechnya would count for instance.

What about if for example Crimea or Luhansk breaks off from Russia?

I'm guessing that wouldn't count, I'm going to bet under the assumption that what we're talking about is if an internationally recognized part of Russia separates from Russia and also achieves international recognition - something like that?

@jack Yes, it would require the creation of a wholly new state on territory that had been Russia. Luhansk and Crimea aren’t going to be come new independent states. Chechnya declaring autonomy/independence would count.