Will more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles be recalled for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023?

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resolved Dec 13

Resolved

YES

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Aug 12, 1:17pm: ~~Will NTSB recall more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023?~~ → Will more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles be recalled for failing safety and engineering review of Autopilot software by end of 2023?

Resolves YES if NTSB issues recall for more than 500,000 Tesla vehicles due to issues identified with Autopilot software by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if not.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40260652/teslas-autopilot-nhtsa-investigation-recall-possible/

Aug 10, 9:29pm:

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predicted YES

This will resolve YES today.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@BTE Can't believe we had it so low 😅

predicted YES

@Joshua Same. But it was a pleasant surprise. I am coming back baby!!!

bought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/13/tesla-autopilot-recall/

Normally they just do an OTA update to fix it instead of recalling vehicles. Does that count as a recall?

predicted NO

@JonathanRay Yes, this is about whether or not it was ordered by NTSB as it was earlier this year. Method irrelevant.

predicted YES

What will you resolve this to if the same 375,000 vehicles are recalled again? So total recalls are > 500,000 but the number of vehicles that have been recalled at least once < 500,000

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Tesla just announced 375,000 vehicles recalled for unsafe full self-driving hardware. I expect this number will rise over the next 10 months.

predicted NO

This is a tricky one because "recall" is a fuzzy term. If Tesla were forced to retract Autopilot from the market that would clearly count, but what happens if the NTSB just asks for some software changes which get applied in the next OTA update? For example, they might identify a trick that some people are using to defeat the driver-attention monitoring, and ask for a tweak that stops people from doing that.