Ben Hylak has made a handful of predictions related to a question for which I have another market linked below.
This resolves YES if Ben Hylak is right.
https://x.com/benhylak/status/1936926061348134983
https://x.com/benhylak/status/1936950420854972810
I.e., this resolves YES if by 2026 either one of:
A Tesla Robotaxi is involved in an accident for which Tesla is at-fault
We learn that Tesla Robotaxis have an intervention rate similar to Cruise, which seems to have been reported as being close to 2-4% of the time, and at a frequency of about every 2.5-5 miles
People are also trading
Tesla is reporting to the NHTSS that their robotaxis were involved in 3 accidents in July. While Tesla is redacting the narrative description of the accident, in one of them they were the only car so I think you have to conclude this was their fault.
The data Tesla reported can be found in the link below.
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/ffdd/sgo-2021-01/SGO-2021-01_Incident_Reports_ADS.csv
@WrongoPhD I'm super busy currently and don't have a lot of time to follow the approximate argument being made here. If it can be made a bit more clear to me step by step, or if a top YES trader signs off on it I'll be more likely to resolve YES expediently.
Good reporting coming to the conclusion would work too.
Otherwise, I'll take a look sometime in the next week.
@AffineTyped https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2025/09/18/tesla-robotaxi-reports-3-crashes-in-austin-on-july-1-details-hidden/
Tesla is clearly to blame for this accident since there were no other cars involved other than the Tesla.
There were two other crashes as well, but not enough information to assign blame on those accidents.

I knew Cruise had a high intervention rate, but didn't actually read about it until today.
They admitted to the car calling a remote operator every 2.5-5 miles but "Of those, many are resolved by the AV itself before the human even looks at things, since we often have the AV initiate proactively and before it is certain it will need help. Many sessions are quick confirmation requests (it is ok to proceed?) that are resolved in seconds."
To me, this still sounds more advanced than Tesla's current robotaxi, which essentially has a permanent monitor in the car to constantly answer the question: "is this okay?"