BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will Israel seize and occupy any new previously unoccupied territory by the end of 2023?
26%
chance

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MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowicki

which of the events below does "seize and occupy" include (besides invading Jordan or Syria etc)
1 obtaining military control over land in Gaza the IDF does not control now
2 building new settlements where none exist
3 taking exclusive control over land in the west bank where currently there is dominance of Palestinian Authority security forces

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 35%

@MichaelLatowicki 1 and 3 definitely. 2 presumably would require annexing new land and would be met with resistance that would require repelling with force, in which case all three. The key factor that must be present is seizure by force.

MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowicki

@BTE are you aware that most settlements are built on un-annexed land, that is, according to Israel, held in belligerent occupation and has a different set of laws than, say, Tel Aviv or Afula? Settlements are often built without formal government consent and illegal for a while, and eventually are often approved by the government. Usually, there is no shooting required, because the IDF already controls the area in question.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 35%

@MichaelLatowicki I am very much aware. That last sentence was the key, "IDF already controls the area in question". So not relevant. I am thinking something like taking back the Golan Heights or something. Seizing Palestinian homes. Or maybe just all of Syria?? Idk, shit seems pretty fucking unpredictable there right now, but Bibi is firmly in control of the coalition so he isn't backing down. The best way to end this internal fighting is to stoke the existential threats that are arguably greater and more imminent than ever before. I don't necessarily agree with this sentiment, but I think this is how Bibi thinks. He is never gonna be in this position again.

MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowicki

@BTE what do you mean taking back the Golan heights? those are already in Israel's control.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 35%

@MichaelLatowicki What did they return to Syria?

MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowicki

@BTE when?

FrancescoDondi avatar
Francesco Dondibought Ṁ20 of NO

I'm curious what land people think they're going to occupy?

Does the Palestinian controlled areas of West Bank count as not occupied, so that opening new colonies there counts?