This area is very charged, so I want to be extra clear. If Israel invades, occupies and are with its military, establishes military fortifications but no Israelis move there and inhabitants don't get recognized as Israeli citizens, does that count as annexed or not?

@Enlil very good question. there’s a quite faint line between occupation and annexation. as this will likely involve a judgement call on my part, i won’t trade here. i’ll add that to the description.

i don’t think there need to be full settlements built in Lebanon for this to Resolve YES. in your example, if Israel has set up seemingly permanent military facilities in (what is currently) Lebanon sovereign territory, with the intent of staying long term, that will likely be sufficient for a YES Resolve.

the other thing that i’ll consider if the language addressing the occupied land by the israeli government. if they refer to the land as Israel, or discuss plans for treating seized territories as native land (e.g. building settlements / relocating people) that would also likely mean that Israel views the land as being annexed, and would lead to a YES Resolution.

@mattyb Thanks for the clarification! One follow-up to get a better idea where you draw the line: would you consider one of West Bank or Gaza as annexed?

@Enlil West Bank: 100%. Gaza’s a war zone rn, but before I would’ve needed to seriously consider if it was just occupied or if it was fully annexed, post 2005

@mattyb Given the West Bank has the PA and Israel forcefully removed thousands of Jews from Gaza, I think making a call on whatever might happen in Lebanon is gonna likely be a tough judgment call.

@Enlil not if (and i’m really hoping for this) the conflict ends without further aggression from either end 🤞