I bet No because there isn't much time left in 2023. Building a naval base is a really big deal. They would probably formally establish presence another way first before going through the trouble of building out a base.

assuming that 'military training facility' doesn't quite count

@JackHarmening No, I would definitely not assume that. Only the Chinese Navy could operate an intelligence base like that described in recent news reports. Simply being in Cuba isn’t the advantage the base provides, it’s the ability to use Cuba as a forward operating point for the types of intelligence missions in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic seaboard that our Navy runs in the South China Sea out of Okinawa. This is an extremely provocative move by China and probably the underlying reason for Biden calling Xi a dictator today out of what must of been frustration.

@BTE 'training facility' is meaningfully different than 'naval base' - 'naval base' implies to me that the chinese navy will have a persistent docked presence. if military experts consider their use of 'training' here to be complete double-speak, i could accept the YES resolve, but I don't think 'training' meets the definition here for 'forward operating point'

agree it is a wildly provocative move and i get why that could push the probability up, im mostly buying NO because i think as the probability increases on china's side of this equation, washington will act to reduce the probability disproportionately

@JackHarmening We don't really know anything yet. Whatever term they use to describe it today is obscure. I actually think it will involve a permanently docked naval presence and a new port to support it built by China. I mean, Cuba is going to get everything they can out of this deal. What would you ask for if you were Cuba? I would ask for an entire Chinese battle group to be stationed there personally.

Which definition of the western hemishpere do you have in mind ? Is the western part of Africa included ?

@Odoacre The literal western hemisphere longitudinally speaking. It appears they are deep in negotiations with Cuba to do this imminently.

@BTE

In other words anything west of Greenwich or east of Semisopochnoi Island?

@Odoacre Ooooh I have never heard of Semisopochisland or whatever but I love it! How the hell do you pronounce it I wonder?? And yes Greenwich is what I was thinking.

Why would you ask this, they were going for samoa.

@MarkIngraham fiji