Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
Basic
2
แน452025
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
US ship: Navy or Coast Guard
Chinese ship: Navy, Coast Guard or Maritime Militia
Clash: physical contact or projectile weapons fired (INCLUDING WATER CANNON). Reports of sonic or laser weapons fired will also cause a YES resolution
This is a deliberately 'low-bar' market primarily testing whether the US and China have any appetite for conflict with each other over the Chinese-Filipino Sabina Shoal dispute.
I will not bet in this market
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
15% chance
During 2024, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Second Thomas Shoal?
9% chance
Did a Chinese submarine suffer a serious accident in 2023?
38% chance
Will there be a collision between US and Chinese navy vessels by the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will there be a clash between Taiwanese and Chinese Coast Guard ships in the waters around Kinmen in 2024?
32% chance
Will China's Navy or Coast Guard seize or sink a Philippine boat by the end of 2024?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2025?
22% chance
Will China and the Philippines have a conflict in the South China Sea that results in at least one death before 2025?
34% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
44% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2025?
43% chance