Before 2026, will a US ship clash with a Chinese ship at Sabina Shoal?
2
100Ṁ45Dec 31
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
US ship: Navy or Coast Guard
Chinese ship: Navy, Coast Guard or Maritime Militia
Clash: physical contact or projectile weapons fired (INCLUDING WATER CANNON). Reports of sonic or laser weapons fired will also cause a YES resolution
This is a deliberately 'low-bar' market primarily testing whether the US and China have any appetite for conflict with each other over the Chinese-Filipino Sabina Shoal dispute.
I will not bet in this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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