Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2026?
4
Ṁ90Ṁ242resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Second Thomas Shoal is curently occupied by the Philippines.
This question resolves YES if China permanently stations armed forces on the Second Thomas Shoal
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ53 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
47% chance
Will China occupy the Second Thomas Shoal before 2030?
55% chance
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
51% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
18% chance
Will china invade taiwan before 14 Jan 2026?
1% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
49% chance
Will a Chinese navy or coast guard ship sink a Filipino navy or coast guard ship before 2027?
20% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
33% chance
Will China deploy a Shuiqiao barge to land forces on the main island of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
30% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?
70% chance