Have Chinese researchers broken modern encryption using quantum computers? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Quantum Computing

Have Chinese researchers broken modern encryption using quantum computers?

5%

chance

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That's the claim they are making. If true it's a BFD.

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Bolton Baileybought Ṁ10 of NO

Is this the same article that Aaronson called "cargo cult quantum factoring"?

Boklamis predicting YES at 9%

@BoltonBailey Yes

For reference:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.12372

DesTinyis predicting NO at 9%

https://manifold.markets/link/HQXL4I4E

BTEis predicting NO at 9%

@DesTiny Tease!

DesTinyis predicting NO at 9%

@BTE hehe

How do you plan to resolve? What criteria?

This was going to happen somewhere within 36months imo, and it makes sense as a focus of research in china