Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for Israeli annexation of any new land in Gaza by the next Israeli election?
30
2026
<1%
1-5%
5-10%
10-25%
>25%

Israel
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Gaza
Annexation
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People will have different definitions of 'annexation': claim as Israeli sovereign territory versus exercise complete control (e.g. impose cordon). I'm answering based on #1, but I think others will claim that Israel has annexed territory on a weaker definition.

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