Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for Israeli annexation of any new land in Gaza by the next Israeli election? | Manifold

Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for Israeli annexation of any new land in Gaza by the next Israeli election?

32

resolved Jan 1

>25%

1-5%

10-25%

5-10%

<1%

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

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People will have different definitions of 'annexation': claim as Israeli sovereign territory versus exercise complete control (e.g. impose cordon). I'm answering based on #1, but I think others will claim that Israel has annexed territory on a weaker definition.

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