Will Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)?
Will Israel annex a part of Gaza in the next 3 years (Nov 17 2027)?
22
1kṀ36392027
49%
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The market resolves YES if through some official channel, Israel proclaims its sovereignty over territory of Gaza hitherto outside its domain, before Nov 17 2027.
Resolves NO on Nov 17 2027 otherwise.
See also:
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-by
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-the-wes
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-part-of-palestine
/Bayesian/will-israel-annex-a-part-of-gaza-in (this market)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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