Will Israel create a "buffer zone" in Gaza, and if so, how large will it be as a percentage of Gaza's total territory?
11
265Ṁ137
Jan 1
53%
chance

This question will resolve to 0% if Gaza is not de-facto shrunk to make room for a larger Israeli "buffer zone". Otherwise, it will resolve to 5 times the percentage of Gaza that is used to create such a territory. If more than 20% of Gaza's territory is used to create a larger "buffer zone", then the question will resolve to 100%. The number that will be used as a basis for the prewar size of Gaza is 365 km^2. The preexisting "buffer zone" of width 100-300m will not count, only additions to this will be considered - if the "buffer zone" remains as it was pre-war then the question will resolve to 0%. If a significant portion (>1%) of Gaza's territory is used for other means besides a buffer zone, such as for Israeli settlements, the question will resolve N/A. The resolution date may be extended in the case that the answer is not apparent by the date. I will try to use the best sources available to estimate the area, preferably a consensus of the New York Times, the Washington Post, and CNN.

I will not bet.

  • Update 2025-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Connectivity rule: Land inside Gaza will count toward the "buffer zone" if it has a route to Israel proper that passes only through Israeli-controlled land, without crossing land where Palestinians live. This includes internal "pockets" linked by Israeli-controlled corridors.

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What if the zone is not a buffer but a fragmentation "pocket", "kettling" zone?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen The euphemism that is used will not affect resolution of this question.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I did not intend a change of terminology but a functional change. That is a change of not separating Israel from Gaza, but separating parts of Gaza from each other.

So long as there is a path from that land that can go through exclusively Israeli-controlled land to Israel proper, without being required to cross into land that Palestinians live on, that land will be included in the resolution criteria.

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