🏅 Top traders

https://manifold.markets/MattCWilson/what-of-federal-workers-who-receive#ijgesq7pkf Seem clear that fewer than 5% have accepted based on CNN and reuters. I make this out as 3.75% by the revised deadline. A smaller percentage will have accepted by the deadline specified for this market's resolution, which has not changed with the revised deadline for the offer.

What % of federal workers who received the “deferred resignation” offer / “fork in the road” email will take it?

NOTE: this is the percentage of the recipients, not of the total federal workforce! https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1884374441456476408?s=46&t=AGFfmV2uDlPAeG-1asCMHw I will go by the most widely publicized number found by the time the question closes, or extend it if we learn there is an official deadline for the offer that is longer out. Update 2025-01-29 (PST): - If there is a published number of people that sent the “resign” reply, the question resolves to that percentage, whether or not the resignations stick. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator: Scenario A: If the official deadline ends before the current close date (Feb 27), the market will resolve to the officially announced percentage retroactive to that deadline (even if published later). Scenario B: If the deadline is delayed beyond Feb 27, the market will close on Feb 27 and resolve using the most broadly publicized unofficial number from well-known media sources as of that date. Scenario C: If scenario A occurs but then a clear second round starts before market close, that additional round is out of scope and the resolution remains as described in Scenario A.

@B yup - I’m just holding off on resolution a day or two longer to see if we get an official OPM tally, a POTUS press release, or etc.

@MattCWilson of course, makes sense for your market to wait considering you have more grades open and are counting resignations right to the end.

I am seeing current reports saying 60,000 accepted the buyout.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-workers-face-buyout-deadline-trump-presses-ahead-with-overhaul-2025-02-06/
however these reports seem to pre-date the end of the buyout phase. I'll give this another couple of days before I resolve NO. If anyone wants to argue it should not be resolved, please do so before EOD Sunday EST, otherwise, I will resolve NO then unless I see another source saying the buyout got up to 5%.

@B I am not arguing against as such, (would be against my own position) but I would expect more than a few to wait to the last minute. That said, you can always ask for it to be unresolved and go again.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/02/06/trumps-federal-buyout-offer-expires-today-as-over-40000-staff-agree-to-leave-heres-what-to-know/

5% of 2 million is around 100,000
Over 40k looks like >2% ish but well short of 5%

About 20,000 federal workers have accepted the "buyout" offer put forward by the Trump administration last week, a senior administration official tells Axios.

Why it matters: It's a significant number of people — about 1% of the federal workforce — but still substantially less than the White House's target of 5% to 10%.

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/04/trump-buyout-federal-workers-20000

I need to issue a correction to the description: I previously stated the Trump administration has offered federal workers a 'deferred resignation' buyout program, estimating 5% acceptance rate. In fact, they reportedly estimated a 5-10% acceptance rate.

@B so it resolves as no both at 49 per mille and at 101 per mille just to be clear?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen incorrect

@B so 101 resolves YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen correct, that satisfies the criterion that at least 5% of workers accept

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I see the confusion. I include the Trump Admin's estimate of the program's success in order to provide context, but the resolution criteria is not defined with reference to it.