Resolution criteria
The market resolves based on the number of Cabinet members who leave their positions during 2026. Departures include resignations, forced exits, or deths. Will resolve based on official WH page and/or reporting in major news outlets.
Official source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet/
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump
Background
Trump completed the first calendar year of his second term in office with no members of his 22-person Cabinet leaving or changing positions. This contrasts sharply with his first term, where two of the 15 agency heads in the presidential line of succession left or changed positions in the first calendar year, which was the most turnover among these positions of any president's first-term or only term since Ronald Reagan's. While Trump's Cabinet was remarkably stable in the first year of his second term, rumors of an impending shake-up abound, as enthusiasm typically declines in the second year of an administration due to burnout, higher pay in the private sector, or waning interest as a president's focus shifts to campaigning.
Considerations
All presidents going back to Reagan (except for President Trump's first term) experienced an uptick in senior-level staff turnover during year two. Additionally, Trump has assigned some Cabinet secretaries to multiple roles simultaneously—for example, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent serves as acting commissioner of the IRS, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also national security adviser, acting archivist of the United States, and former acting administrator of USAID—a dual- and triple-hatting approach unique to Trump that could create pressure points for departures.
This description was particularly generated by AI.
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