Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 11:59 pm ET on December 31, 2030, there exists at least one treatment that meets all of the following:

  • Evidence: A peer‑reviewed human study (prospective; n ≥ 50) using a validated nasolabial‑fold (NLF) severity scale (e.g., WSRS or a validated 5‑point NLF photo numeric scale) with blinded/independent raters.

  • Outcome threshold: ≥50% of treated participants achieve NLF severity of “none or mild” (grade 0–1) maintained ≥5 years after a single initial treatment course (≤3 sessions within 6 months) with no further NLF‑specific maintenance. Measurements must be reported at ≥5 years.

  • Indication: If the therapy is a drug/device, it must have regulatory approval for NLF correction in the study jurisdiction (e.g., FDA approval/clearance for NLF). Surgical techniques do not require regulatory approval but must satisfy the evidence and outcome thresholds above.

• Otherwise resolves NO at market close.

• Edge cases:

  • Temporary or maintenance‑dependent regimens (e.g., HA fillers, CaHA, PLLA) do not qualify unless the ≥5‑year, no‑maintenance threshold is met in the qualifying study. (fda.gov)

  • PMMA/“permanent” fillers (e.g., Bellafill) only qualify if peer‑reviewed data explicitly show the grade 0–1, ≥5‑year, no‑maintenance outcome meeting the thresholds above; studies reporting “improvement” without grade distributions are insufficient.

  • Evidence used for resolution must be from peer‑reviewed journals indexed on PubMed (or equivalent) and, for devices/drugs, accompanied by the relevant regulator’s labeling/approval page.