Will I get a cure to cavities before 2030?
16
309
330
2030
18%
chance

https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1705651940372164900

I have had a lot of cavities due to liking sugar and having bad genes. I would be happy to pay $1000+ for that to no longer be a concern.

I'm not particularly concerned about health side effects, as they seem fairly minor if they exist at all. However, the fact that the new bacteria will produce ethanol concerns me, and I'd probably not want that unless the amounts are so small as to have no measureable effect at all.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
predicts NO

I read through some of the research and also the company's google drive docs (lol)
> "don't count on a way of removing it from your teeth coming into existence"
> wholly unknown effects on mouth and gut biome
> some strains of s. mutans have been found to cause ulcerative colitis
> native s. mutans strains can cause heart infections if they make it into the blood, unclear what effect genetic engineering has on the likelihood of that event
> nonzero risk of mutation and incorporation of exogenous DNA, possibly undoing the effect or worse
> their genetically modified s. mutans produces an antibiotic which has a nonzero chance of triggering antibiotic resistance or disrupting mouth and gut biome.
> unknown rate of communicability
> handwavy napkin calculation about blood alcohol content that calls three times the worst case diabetic ethanol production "normal levels"


To be clear, I think this is a worthy research area, I think I'd take the cavity risk rather than moving fast and breaking my microbiome for now though.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

The fact that in 2023 dentists still say we have to floss doesn't give me hope.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

yeah the whole "mouth constantly producing ethanol" thing seems like maybe not optimal, depending on the quantity. i can imagine it might be enough to trip breathalyzers and/or make you constantly be tasting ethanol

predicts YES

@brubsby they've definitely thought about that, it's not that much ethanol. Significantly less ethanol than your body produces naturally.

predicts NO

if the bacteria outcompetes native mouth bacteria, what's stopping people who are infected with it from just spitting in other people's mouths as a public service?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@brubsby damn?!

predicts NO

"spitting into other people's mouths as a public service" is purposefully comedic, but my point is that it seems like there's some drawback the founders are obviously downplaying. otherwise, by their description of the miracle bacterium, people could just spread it to each other without any interference from capital at all.

@brubsby Are we sure that it doesn't spread by kissing? Is there a possibility that this could have already gone viral and is in all of our mouths right now?

predicts NO

i think dentists might notice the complete eradication of cavities

@brubsby Maybe it's not widespread enough yet but is inevitably endemic?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

i just think it's much more likely that it's not as communicable or effective as the people who would stand to benefit from the hype would have you believe. i'd be happy to be wrong though

predicts YES

@brubsby you could try like, asking the people who are making it. they would say (afaik) that while it's very effective, it's highly non communicable, it actually takes a lot of work to get it to take root in your mouth - bacteria in your mouth have a very strong home field advantage, so you have to do various procedures I don't know the details of to get your mouth exceedingly clean before the new bacteria have any chance. But conversely, once they are there, they are highly resistant to being disloged.

predicts NO

such a scenario would be the "catch", as they use the language "new bacteria will outcompete your native bacteria"

predicts YES

@brubsby I don't understand what is intended by the word "catch" above.

It's not some sort of secret gotcha that the new bacteria outcompete the native bacteria, it's advertised as the literal mechanism of action. There is some chance it's bad for you (I say, a complete non-expert in this subject).

predicts NO

"catch" being like, "this miracle bacteria is too good to be true, there has to be some catch". you were proposing that "it actually takes a lot of work to get it to take root in your mouth", which would be antithetical to the claims of the founders (namely that it easily outcompetes your native bacteria), and would be a catch.

predicts YES

@brubsby all I've done this entire time is parrot claims the founders made to me in a 15 minute conversation, so I'm not exactly revealing info that is deeply secret here. that's what I think I was trying to gesture at above - I think I get this sense that you think their claims are too good to be true, which they might be, but also, you don't seem to actually understand their claims, which seems like it might resolve some of your worries that they are too good to be true.

predicts YES

deleted

predicts NO

maybe less me not understanding their claims and more that their public facing claims are more overstated than what they've conversationally told you

predicts YES

@brubsby Could be.

Comment hidden