Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2036, all of the following conditions are met:

1. Identified intervention: A specific treatment or protocol exists (drug, biologic, procedure, or combination) intended to cure fibromyalgia.

2. Majority durable remission: In at least one large, peer-reviewed Phase III (or equivalent) clinical trial, ≥60% of diagnosed fibromyalgia patients:

   • No longer meet established diagnostic criteria for fibromyalgia, and

   • Remain below those criteria for at least 12 consecutive months.

3. Not ongoing symptom suppression: Remission must persist without continuous treatment (i.e., not dependent on daily medication or repeated intervention purely to suppress symptoms).

4. Independent confirmation: Results are confirmed or endorsed by multiple independent research groups or reflected in authoritative clinical guidelines or reviews.

The market resolves NO if these conditions are not met by the deadline.

Background

There is no cure for fibromyalgia, and despite significant progress in pharmacological research over the past few decades, a cure for fibromyalgia remains elusive, with no drug providing consistent efficacy for the majority of fibromyalgia patients. Current treatments focus on managing symptoms like pain, fatigue and poor sleep, with exercise being a key part of the recommendations, and the only FDA-approved drugs are antidepressants duloxetine and milnacipran, and antiepileptic pregabalin. Despite extensive research, fibromyalgia's pathogenesis and treatment remain only partially understood. Recent research has identified potential mechanisms including dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, low-grade inflammation, metabolic disturbances, and alterations in gut microbiota.

Considerations

The resolution criteria require not just symptom improvement but actual remission—patients must no longer meet diagnostic criteria and maintain this state for 12 months without continuous treatment. This is a substantially higher bar than current clinical trials, which typically measure pain reduction or symptom management rather than disease reversal. There are 26 candidates in active development for fibromyalgia, with only two at Phase III development, suggesting the field remains early-stage. The requirement for independent confirmation across multiple research groups adds an additional verification layer beyond a single successful trial.