I’m not going to tell you who they are, you’re just going to have to guess. Politically I’m a young man who lives in Wyoming, identifies as a left leaning independent, and I am decently politically active.
I’m leaving the market at 50/50 even though that’s definitely not the odds for this race. Yes the race is competitive.
Good Luck!
1,000Given your question history, I’m thinking there’s around a one-in-three chance your candidate is Talarico. I’m also assuming you’re using a reasonable definition of competitive so not just 50/50 candidates but maybe something like all 20–80% races, or maybe 10–90% at the widest.
Non talerico, center left candidates average roughly 49–50% under either cutoff. Using 67% for Talarico and giving him one-third of the weight gets me to about 55%. But maybe I'm just donating mana, idk, if it's third party will almost certainly also be no.