Will 300% lifespan extension in rotifers replicate?
➕
Plus
51
Ṁ1993
2025
14%
chance

A 2010 paper published in PLoS One found the lifespan of rotifers could be extended >300% by exposing them to a synthetic antioxidant (indole-3-propionamide -- IPAM). Mean lifespan of the control group was 24.6 days, versus 90.5 days for the group living in media with 30 mM IPAM.

As far as I can tell, this result has not been replicated, despite it's alleged extraordinary success as a longevity intervention. I am considering synthesizing IPAM and attempting to replicate significant lifespan extension in rotifers.

Conditional on me carrying out a replication attempt, will I find the experimental group (treated with 30 mM IPAM) has at least 200% the lifespan of the control group?

The closing date will be extended until I decide if I will attempt this replication. I will answer questions in the comments & update the description with notable clarifications.

EDITS:

2023-08-07: If the market reaches 25 traders I'll take that as a sign that there's sufficient interest in this & draft a procedure for the synthesis of IPAM

2023-08-10: Looked into the synthesis options, and selected a draft procedure: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1GGtUAtbGdnb7YM6B-XD3lfA82ra-d1KoGykt0u36MO4/edit?usp=sharing. Unfortunately, I will not be able to perform the synthesis for at least 1, and likely at least 3 months. Nonetheless I will try to add some more details in preparation if I have time. If there is continued interest in this I will also try to figure out how difficult actually getting/keeping/monitoring rotifers will be. If anyone is involved in longevity research or has connections who are, I would certainly be interested in opinions on why this research appears not to have been replicated/pursued further to date.

2023-08-24: Got a lead for a local professor who works with rotifers who I can reach out to for help.

2023-10-03: The current procedure matches ASKCOS's suggestion, so will keep it as is. There is not likely to be much progress for the next month, but I am talking to some people more knowledgeable in the field to decide if this is worth attempting.

2024-02-27: I've spoken to a couple of professors working on related projects. Based on their feedback, the project seems potentially worth pursuing further, and one of them has offered to supply rotifers! Unfortunately, it won't be possible for me to do this work in their lab (which would be the most straightforward route), so the project will be on hiatus until I have the time and funding available.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ100 NO

Betting no, but prove me wrong!!

@Ouroboros Should the close date be extended again? Any further updates?

@EvanDaniel Extended for a year -- unfortunately, there will not likely be any updates for the next month at least.

predicts YES

Please use ISO 8601.

@a2bb Done

Added tentative procedure

Reached 25 traders, will draft a procedure and link it in the description soon

predicts NO

Could you please stop updating the close date so often? If extending regularly, do a few days at a time at least.

@jskf Ah, sure thing, I'll extend it out a month

24 traders, we can do it!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules