Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years? | Manifold

Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?

15

1kṀ226

2040

18%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Announcement here: https://retro.bio/announcement/

Will resolve yes if the mission is considered accomplished at the begining of 2040.

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A problem with this market is that if a different organization contributes to this as well, it's hard to figure out the causality of whether or not Retro should be given credit.

Sam Altman has invested a significant fraction of his wealth in this company

The website has a lot of fancy words and little science/data to show for it. Just saying “cell reprogramming” tells me nothing about the feasibility of their ideas.

predictedNO

@drcat https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-12-19/longevity-startup-retro-biosciences-is-sam-altman-s-shot-at-life-extension This tells me More, i trust their methods better now but I’m not still sure they will succeed

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Related questions

By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?

Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?

Will any company successfully develop a therapeutic treatment that rejuvenates healthspan by at least 10 years by 2030?

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?

Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035?

Will retro.bio grow its own cell lines by EOY2029?

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

Will Altos Labs trial an anti-aging intervention in humans by 2030?

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