Will Luria replicate?
6
141Ṁ130
2032
26%
chance
Scott recently wrote about Luria asking questions to some Uzbek peasants in the 1930s here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/somewhat-contra-marcus-on-ai-scaling?s=r The thing is, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks (after 80 years of mass literacy) are not exactly high in the IQ department TODAY -Kyrgyz scored around the equivalent of 75 on the 2009 PISA. Given it would be trivial for someone to visit Central Asia today (Kyrgyzstan would be easiest for a number of reasons), would Luria's observations replicate today? Resolves if someone travels to Uzbekistan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/southern Kazakhstan with this intention after I've posted this question and writes a detailed account of his observations. If the observations do not replicate Luria's at all, this question will resolve No. If they strongly replicate, it will resolve Yes. If it's a mixture, it will resolve to % on the basis of the agreement with Luria's observations.
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy