Has AI progress between Nov 2023-Oct 2024 been >= the progress between Nov 2022-Oct 2023?
10
resolved Dec 3
Yes
No
Unsure/See Results
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
51% chance
Which AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will AI Impacts publish another Expert Survey on Progress in AI by the end of 2025?
96% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
3% chance
If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?
79% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
12% chance
Will there be a curve shift in general AI capabilities by the end of 2028?
62% chance
If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?
Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?
32% chance