MANIFOLD
February 2026 AI releases
184
Ṁ2.1kṀ43k
Feb 28
24%
DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5
18%
DeepSeek V4
18%
GPT-5.3 (doesn't include GPT-5.3 Codex)
13%
Claude Haiku 4.6
12%
Meta Avocado (or other name for new Meta LLM)
11%
Nano Banana 2
11%
Gemini 3 Flash GA
11%
Gemini 3 Pro GA
Resolved
YES
Alibaba Qwen 3.5
Resolved
YES
Kling 3.0
Resolved
YES
Seedance 2.0
Resolved
YES
Grok 4.20
Resolved
YES
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Resolved
YES
GPT-5.3 Codex (including -mini, Max, Fast, etc.)
Resolved
YES
GLM 5
Resolved
YES
MiniMax M2.2 (or M2.3, M2.5)
Resolved
YES
Claude Opus 4.6
Resolved
YES
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview
Resolved
N/A
Gemini 3 Pro DeepThink API access

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@Bayesian Why isn't this resolvable yet?

@prismatic is there API access available? I don't think so?

@bens we already discussed this before and he had agreed with me: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/february-2026-ai-releases#it24j66q9ml

@prismatic that doesn't read to me like he's agreeing with you at all?

Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview resolves YES. It's live on Google AI Studio. Announcement: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-1-pro/

MiniMax 2.5 is available on poe.com now. So, please resolve YES.

@MarcoMar was there a minimax announcement that tou are aware of

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 69% order
bought Ṁ569 YES

@Bayesian Resolves YES

Why did GPT 5.3 NA?

@SorenJ bc it was ambiguous whether gpt5.3 codex counted or not

@Bayesian But the month isnt over so we could still get an unambiguous 5.3

@SorenJ yeah which is why i created a new option ‘gpt5.3 (excludes codex)’, which doesnt have this ambiguity

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bought Ṁ20 NO🤖
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bought Ṁ15 NO🤖
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bought Ṁ15 NO🤖
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bought Ṁ20 NO🤖
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