After this market closes, I will create a Manifold poll asking if the AI progress between November 2023-October 2024 inclusive has been at least as big as the progress between November 2022-October 2023 inclusive (Exact wording TBD).

The poll will run for a month (30 days) and have three options:

When the poll closes, I will resolve this market YES if the number of Yes votes in the poll is greater than the number of No votes, and resolve NO if the number of No votes in the poll is greater than the number of Yes votes. If there is a tie, then I will resolve at 50%.

If it is no longer possible to make a poll on Manifold when this market closes, I will probably look into alternative methods for performing the poll.

As I could bias the outcome of the poll by, for example, wording it in an odd way, I will not bet in this market.