As of February 2025, prior to any trajectory-altering events, is asteroid 2024-YR4 currently on a trajectory that will result in it impacting Earth’s atmosphere?
Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to Resolution Criteria:
Scenario 1: If no attempt is made to redirect the asteroid and no evidence of any trajectory change is uncovered, resolution will be based on the actual impact outcome.
Scenario 2: If the asteroid’s trajectory is known with confidence but changes (e.g., due to a redirection mission) before a projected impact, resolution will be based on the expected trajectory prior to any changes.
Scenario 3: If the asteroid’s current trajectory is not known with confidence and it is unclear whether a redirection occurs, resolution will be based on the best available information.
1,000To clarify a bit:
There are three possible scenarios:
1) no attempt is made to redirect the asteroid and no evidence of any trajectory change is uncovered. Resolution is based on actual impact
2) asteroid’s trajectory is known with confidence, but changes (for whatever reason, but most likely a redirection mission) before the projected impact. Resolution is based on the expected trajectory before any changes
3) asteroid’s current trajectory is never known with confidence, and is maybe or maybe not redirected somehow. In this very unlikely case I will resolve based on the best information available.