This resolves to the outcome that best represents the actual (nominal) geocentric distance at which asteroid 2024‑YR4 will pass Earth presumably on December 22, 2032, but specifically during the month of December 2032 (GMT). The official resolving source is the published list of asteroid closest approaches on Wikipedia. In cases of ambiguity due to measurement uncertainties, the published nominal closest approach value shall be used, or an alternate reliable source of the resolver's choice if Wikipedia no longer suffices.

If no close approach is listed because the Asteroid did not approach closely enough, makes its closest approach in a different month, the asteroid no longer exists as such, or we "lose" the asteroid and can no longer track it, then this resolves to Unknown. This survives name changes to the Asteroid - we are referring to the celestial body currently known as 2024-YR4, as of February 2025.

• Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fragmentation and Successor Objects:

  • Tracking: If a mission causes fragmentation, use the tracking done by astronomical consensus.

  • Naming: If one of the resulting objects is still named 2024‑YR4 (even with additional designations like 2024‑YR4a), use that object’s measurements for the market resolution.

  • Non-Existence: If authorities conclude that 2024‑YR4 no longer exists as a single, coherent object due to fragmentation, resolve the market as Unknown.

• Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Naming Continuity Clarification:

  • If a new naming convention is adopted but there is clear continuity in identifying the same object, the market will continue to refer to the object currently known as 2024-YR4.

  • This update applies even if the nomenclature changes, as long as the object’s identity remains unambiguous.