Will the "40 mile long convoy" have a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by May 2022?
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แน1Kresolved Apr 4
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From https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/russian-convoy-stalled-outside-kyiv-intl/index.html -
> On Thursday, US intelligence suggested that the convoy was still stalled some distance from Kyiv, backing claims made by both the Ukrainian government and UK's defense ministry.
>
> "We still assess that the convoy that everybody's been focused on is stalled. We have no reason to doubt Ukrainian claims that they have, that they have contributed to it being stalled by attacking it," a senior US official told reporters.
>
> Earlier in the day, the UK's defense ministry said the convoy appears to have stalled some 30 kilometers (19 miles) outside Kyiv and had made "little discernible progress" over the past three days, citing intelligence.
>
> "The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30 km from the center of the city, having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days," the UK statement said.
By May 2022, will this convoy have had a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine?
In the case of an ambiguous result (ex: only ~10% of the vehicles are actually needed/used; the convoy is used but only with minor effect; etc) this will resolve NO.
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"Elements of the large Russian column north of Kyiv have dispersed."
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1502533211523538944
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