Will Russia implement a major nationwide forced military mobilization for the Ukraine war before EOY 2024?
1k
Dec 31
31%
chance

To Resolve as YES:

  • Russia officially orders a binding draft/conscription requiring at least 300,000 additional able-bodied citizens between 18-60 to report for military service

  • The stated purpose must be to significantly increase forces for the Ukraine war

  • A covert/undeclared mobilization of this scale under the guise of the current "partial mobilization" would count

To Resolve as NO:

  • Russia does not order a new draft/conscription meeting the above criteria by December 31, 2024

  • Continuation of current policies and personnel levels

The determination will be based on official Russian government statements, legislation, and actions, as well as reporting from credible international media.

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Note: there is a standing mobilization order. It's somewhat unlikely that another one would be issued even if the current recruitment tempo increases.

@mxxun for that matter, aiui current policies might well result in 200k-300k additional recruits across the year. That sounds like both Yes and No.

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