To Resolve as YES:

• Russia officially orders a binding draft/conscription requiring at least 300,000 additional able-bodied citizens between 18-60 to report for military service

• The stated purpose must be to significantly increase forces for the Ukraine war

• A covert/undeclared mobilization of this scale under the guise of the current "partial mobilization" would count

To Resolve as NO:

• Russia does not order a new draft/conscription meeting the above criteria by December 31, 2024

• Continuation of current policies and personnel levels

The determination will be based on official Russian government statements, legislation, and actions, as well as reporting from credible international media.