What will be true of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
56
5.5k
Dec 31
91%
Russia will control more territory at the end of the year than it would have controlled under the negotiated April 2022 peace agreement
34%
A credible estimate of the civilian fatality ratio will find that there has been at least one civilian fatality for every three combatant fatalities since February 2022
16%
Ukraine will claim responsibility for a previously unattributed act of terror or sabotage committed in 2022 or 2023
10%
The US government will openly accuse the Ukrainian government of involvement in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage
9%
Ukrainian forces will attempt a false flag operation involving the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant
6%
Ukrainian forces will attempt a false flag attack on a NATO member state
6%
Russia will gain control of the entirety of Kherson Oblast
6%
Russia will claim responsibility for a previously unattributed act of terror or sabotage committed in 2022 or 2023
5%
Ukraine will gain control of the entirety of Kherson Oblast
Resolved
YES
The US government will announce a new package of military aid to Ukraine

General rules

Answers in this market are unlinked; any number of them may resolve YES. I intend to add new answers throughout the year. Any user who has an idea for a new answer is welcome to suggest it in the comment section.

I will endeavour to resolve answers carefully and I may resolve answers to N/A in cases of considerable uncertainty. Please refer to specific resolution criteria and clarifications for each answer as provided in the next section.

I may bet in this market, including to set the initial probabilities of answers. In order to remain impartial, I will refrain from investing heavily in answers when I foresee that their resolution may be contentious.

Information specific to each answer

"Russia will control more territory at the end of the year than it would have controlled under the negotiated April 2022 peace agreement"

According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.

Source: https://archive.is/9BVwS

"A credible estimate of the civilian fatality ratio will find that there has been at least one civilian fatality for every three combatant fatalities since February 2022"

What constitutes a credible estimate is at my discretion. For reference, civilians are thought to be somewhere between 2% and 20% of all fatalities so far. The exact ratio may never be known, and so this answer may resolve YES or NO without definitive proof either way. In the event of considerable uncertainty, I may resolve to N/A.

"The US government will openly accuse the Ukrainian government of involvement in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage"

Reports such as this one and this one, or reports based on anonymous sources, are not sufficient to resolve this answer YES. The accusations must be overt and directed unambiguously at the Ukrainian government for a YES resolution.

"Ukraine will claim responsibility for a previously unattributed act of terror or sabotage committed in 2022 or 2023" and "Russia will claim responsibility for a previously unattributed act of terror or sabotage committed in 2022 or 2023"

In 2023, Ukraine claimed responsibility for the previously unattributed 2022 Kerch Bridge explosion. This is a past example of the kind of occurrence that would be sufficient to resolve this answer to YES.

"Ukrainian forces will attempt a false flag attack on a NATO member state" and "Ukrainian forces will attempt a false flag operation involving the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant"

In order to resolve each of these answers to YES, any relevant operation/attack must be proven to have been intentionally done by Ukraine for the purpose of blaming the incident on another party to the conflict (e.g. Russia). The explosion of the misfired Ukrainian air defence missile in Poland in 2022 would not count as a false flag attack, even though it was initially blamed on Russia, as there is no evidence that Ukraine intended the missile to land in Polish territory.

"The US government will announce a new package of military aid to Ukraine"

In order to resolve YES, this answer requires an official announcement by the White House, the Pentagon or the State Department.

"Ukraine will gain control of the entirety of Kherson Oblast" and "Russia will gain control of the entirety of Kherson Oblast"

For each of these answers, a YES resolution will be triggered if, at any point in 2024, the named country controls all of the territory within the province of Kherson. This may be verified by mutual confirmation of the Russian and Ukrainian governments, or by multiple credible news reports.

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Russia will control more territory at the end of the year than it would have controlled under the negotiated April 2022 peace agreement

What territory would Russia have had? I can't find specifics

@NathanScott Regarding the disputed territories, Russia would have retained all of Crimea and the part of Donbass that was already outside Ukrainian control before 24 February 2022, according to the source linked in the description. This is what I will base my resolution on.

@a_l_e_x my bad, I didn't see it was in the description already

@NathanScott no worries!

Ukraine will claim responsibility for a previously unattributed act of terror or sabotage committed in 2022 or 2023

Regarding this answer and the Belgorod incident, Ukraine has already admitted responsibility (before 2024) for the attack so it will not count toward a YES resolution under any circumstances.