https://www.chess.com/news/view/fide-world-chess-championship-2023-tiebreak-ding-liren

@AndrewG this should resolve to NO

Why are people shorting this one to below 50%?

@MP Nepo has black for the last classical game

@archvenison they will draw

@MP Basically Ding is more likely to win game 14 because he has white, but if it's a draw Nepo probably has a slight edge because he's good at rapid and blitz. And the hivemind has decided those factors combine to 45% for Nepo

The leak increases nepos chances by roughly ~5% imo

@kottsiek the leak?

@BrendanFinan Some of Ding's prep was found on Lichess after game 8: https://old.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/12ssian/investigation_might_have_found_ding_and_rapports/

Other chess markets

The weekly chart is so funny right now

@MP Been dutifully holding onto my Ding stock and it has been such an emotional wild ride

The series is now tied and a naive ELO calculation still favors Ding.

@jeremiahsamroo how? Ian has a higher elo

@MP That appears to be correct, but a few months ago it was the way around. It looks like Ding's rating dropped because of a poor performance in the 2023 Tata Steel tournament. I think I'd argue the rating comparison between the two is pretty much a wash

@MP yeah ur right. I thought Ding was still at 2811 mb

Ding has 20min to make 20 moves. It's over

Let's see how things will go today. Ian seems to be way more prepared mentally, perhaps being crushed by Magnus helped him to lose his World Chess Championship virginity

Per their Wikipedia pages, Ding Liren's Elo rating is 16 points higher. Using the Elo calculator at https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#rating1=2792&rating2=2808&best_of=14, a best of 14 would be Nepo: 0.32, Liren: 0.52, draw: 0.16. Assuming the tiebreak games would work out 50/50, that's 60% Ding, 40% Nepo.

Nepo has a winning record against Ding Liren https://2700chess.com/games?s%5Bwhite_player%5D=Ding%2C+Liren&s%5Bblack_player%5D=Nepomniachtchi%2C+Ian&s%5Bignore_color%5D=0&s%5Bignore_color%5D=1&s%5Bfrom_date%5D=2019

I think Ben bet a bit more than he intended

A naive calculation from their Elo gives a 52% chance of Ding winning, plus 16% chance of draw, in a best of 14. If it goes to a draw, then Ding has an even greater advantage in the rapid section, though exact details of that have not been disclosed.

I think the correct odds here are something like 35-40% chance of Nepo winning.