This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026.
An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise. If they do not participate, their option resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700. No additional players will be added. The market resolves 'Other' if a player not on this list wins the event.
1,000Reality check on Gukesh having a 40% chance to beat the winner of the Candidates in a series.
The Candidates that Gukesh won was far lower-average-ranked than any in at least modern history. This upcoming candidates is stronger. The reason was Abasov, a single relatively low-ranked player. Gukesh was one of two players to score 2.0 against Abasov, and won the Candidates by 0.5. There is no Abasov in the upcoming Candidates.
His World Championship match last year was against a Ding who had already totally collapsed out of top-level play. Gukesh beat him by one point in the full 14-series match. He actually lost rating points winning the World Championship! It was actually Ding's only rating gain event since he won the previous World Championship -- to this day!
Since then, Gukesh has underperformed at event after event and dropped 29 more rating points. It's not clear that he would beat Ding today, let alone Fabi or Pragg.
Can Gukesh win? Yes. He's still a top player. Hell, Ding could have won, and he was in a more dire position.
But 40%?
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