Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?
41
365
790
2030
36%
chance

This market is for predicting whether Magnus Carlsen will become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by the year 2031 in classical chess.

The market will resolve to YES if Magnus Carlsen wins any FIDE World Chess Championship in classical chess between now and the end of 2031.

The market will resolve to NO if Magnus Carlsen does not win any FIDE World Chess Championship in classical chess between now and the end of 2031.

The market will be resolved based on the official results of all FIDE World Chess Championships in classical chess held between now and the end of 2031 as announced by FIDE. If Magnus Carlsen wins any of these championships in classical chess, the market will resolve to YES. If Magnus Carlsen does not win any of these championships in classical chess, the market will resolve to NO.

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PC avatar
PC

I"m surprised this is this low. This assumes that Carlsen doesn't want to participate in any championships over the next 8 years?

PC avatar
PC

@PC I guess there is this market: https://manifold.markets/FubbiQuantz/will-magnus-carlsen-compete-for-the

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
32% chance. This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: (1) An event, such as a candidates tournament, which is primarily intended to select the next contender for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship. (2) Or Carlsen otherwise is a challenger for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship. Criteria and clarifications. If Carlsen competes in a tournament or tournaments which are qualification events for a candidates tournament, then that does not count as competing for the world championship. For example, if winning first place in the Sinquefield Cup earns the winner a spot in the candidates tournament, then participating in the Sinquefield Cup does not count as competing for the world championship. But if Carlsen wins first place at the Sinquefield Cup and opts to participate in the candidates tournament, then this question will resolve as YES. The Sinquefield Cup does not count as a world championship competition because its chief reason for existing is not to serve as a WCC selection event. The official World Classical Chess Championship is the WCC contest administered by FIDE (or FIDE's successor if it should cease to exist as the main governing body of international chess competitions). Under these terms, Fischer's last match against Spassky and Kasparov's championships after the Kasparov-Short competition do not count as FIDE Classical World Chess Championships.
MaggieDelano avatar
Maggie Delanopredicts NO

@PC He has indicated he isn’t interested in competing unless there is a major format change and FIDE has made no indication that the format will change in a way he wants. He is currently eligible for the candidates 2024 tournament but has said he has no intention to participate.

For this market to resolve true not only does Carlsen have to play, which means the format must change, but also win the candidates and then win the title again. I think that is pretty unlikely.

PC avatar
PCbought Ṁ0 of YES

@MaggieDelano Thanks! He did say he would be willing to face some of the next generation.

Put a 1k limit order at 20% for anyone

MattReardon avatar
Matt Reardon

@M_HK_FA Do Rapid and Blitz FIDE world championships count? The "again" suggests this is classical only as Carlsen is currently the World Rapid Champion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship

M_HK_FA avatar
MHKFApredicts NO

@MattReardon Sorry, it was intended to focus on the classical title only, not blitz / rapid