Who will be World Chess Champion at the end of the 2020s?
26
1.5kṀ4095
2030
26%
Gukesh Dommaraju
18%
Other
10%
Wei Yi
9%
Arjun Erigaisi
8%
Hikaru Nakamura
7%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
6%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
5%
Fabiano Caruana
4%
Magnus Carlsen
4%
Alireza Firouzja
1.5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi

A few points of clarification:

  • If there is any chess governing body that is widely recognized in the press as "FIDE" I will go with the champion recognized by that body.

  • If there is no such body, I will go with the recognition of whatever body is widely recognized in the press as the most dominant chess body of the time.

  • "most" and "widely recognized in the press" is to be supported by news articles and such, but is ultimately up to my judgement. If you want updates on how this is shaping up let me know and I will try to clarify.

  • If there is no such individual at all, then I will resolve N/A.

I will also not bet, to avoid ambiguity over which recognition counts becoming a problem.

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