Will Ian Nepomniachtchi ever become World Chess Champion?
12
1.3k
2040
20%
chance

Ian Nepomniachtchi has had more than one opportunity to become the world chess champion. Will he ever do it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Nepomniachtchi

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship

This market will resolve YES when/if Ian Nepomniachtchi becomes world chess champion.

This market will resolve NO when/if I determine that Ian Nepomniachtchi has become irrelevant to the world chess championship. Examples of this would be that Ian has retired or he has stopped competing in the candidates tournament. If he doesn't qualify for the candidates any year but he is still attempting to qualify for future candidates tournaments, this market will not resolve at that point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament#

Since the candidates tournament reformatted to an 8 player double round-robin tournament in 2013, the oldest player to have competed in that tournament has been 46 years old (Viswanathan Anand 2016). I expect that Ian will likely become irrelevant by the time he reaches 50 years of age. Due to this, I will put the expiration date at his 50th birthday. However, if he is still actively and successfully making his way to the candidates tournament at that point, I may push the expiration out further. That is to be determined by future me.

I will allow myself to bet on this market, but I currently don't know which way I would bet. I will probably give the market some time to fluctuate before making a decision.

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