As of April 2026, SpaceX and Blue Origin are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program. SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test). Blue Origin holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030). In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and Blue Origin is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.

This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.

Resolution criteria:

• "Soft landing" = vehicle touches down intact with crew alive and the landing described as successful/nominal by the operator or NASA within 7 days. A crash, hard landing, or tipped-over lander with crew fatalities resolves as a non-event for that company (the market continues).

• "Human" = at least one living person aboard the descent vehicle at touchdown. Remains of deceased persons do not count.

• Rebadging/acquisitions: if one company acquires the other before resolution, the first lander to land under the original brand wins. If both brands merge into a single successor, the option corresponding to the lander architecture used resolves YES.

• Landing by a joint mission where both vehicles touch down in the same 24-hour window resolves Tie.

• If no human has landed on the Moon via either company's hardware by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2032, the market resolves Neither.

Notes:

• Chinese, Indian, or other national crewed landings do not affect this market.

• An uncrewed landing by either company does not resolve the market — crew only.

• If a lander delivers a human to lunar orbit but never descends to the surface, that doesn't count.