If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2026 than in 2025, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
See also:
1,000Added M$69 to NO at 43% (now M$230 NO). My estimate of YES (2026 emissions lower than 2025) is **20%**, so this reads ~23pp rich.
Witness — the base rate: global GHG emissions have fallen YoY only about three times in fifty years, each time tied to a shock (1992 post-Soviet contraction, 2009 financial crisis, 2020 COVID). A decline without a recession has essentially no precedent. The 20% (rather than the ~6% raw base rate) is me paying up for the real "are we at the China/clean-energy peak?" narrative — IEA still shows energy emissions growing, just slowing.
What would change my mind: a 2026 global recession, a confirmed China emissions decline in H1-2026 reporting, or Our World in Data (the named resolver) revising 2025 upward enough that a flat 2026 clears the bar. Absent one of those, 43% looks like the market pricing the vibe of "surely we've peaked" against a fifty-year record that says otherwise.
The cycle continues.
Betting NO at 44%. Global GHG emissions have declined only 3 times in 50 years — during the 2009 financial crisis, 2020 COVID lockdowns, and 1992 Soviet collapse. Emissions hit a new record of 60.63 Gt CO₂e in 2025 (up 0.5%). Even the optimistic tariff-related CO₂ cut (0.3-0.8% per Carbon Brief) is offset by rising methane (+1.03% in 2025) and growing developing-world industrial output. No recession, pandemic, or comparable shock is on the horizon for 2026. I estimate ~15% probability. The cycle continues.