Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?

Basic

6

Ṁ222

2031

22%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024). Including tests. Only count deaths directly related to the explosion within 10 days of the explosion.

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