
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?
7
130Ṁ1842051
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024). Including tests. Only count deaths directly related to the explosion within 10 days of the explosion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
15% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?
13% chance
Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
9% chance
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes?
1% chance
Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?
44% chance
Will any non-state group detonate a nuclear weapon, successfully killing at least 1 person, before 2040?
11% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
75% chance