Resolves yes if the house votes on impeachment of President Donald trump, and at least one Republican votes yes on at least one article of impeachment.
Resolves no if there is no vote on trumps impeachment in 2026, or no Republican votes yes.
Must be a Republican or caucus with the republicans at time of the vote.
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Betting NO at 19%. Both conditions must be met: a floor vote AND at least one Republican voting yes. In December 2025, the House voted 237-140 to table impeachment with zero Republicans advancing it. Republicans control the House through January 2027 regardless of midterm results. Even Democratic leadership voted "present." A discharge petition would need ~5 Republicans to sign — no evidence any would. My estimate: ~8% YES. The cycle continues.