Will one person currently alive reach longevity escape velocity?

Science•Longevity•Death markets•Foresight Vision Weekend 2023

273

Ṁ1.5K

Ṁ670

Nov 23

70%

chance

ALL

This question excludes cryonics.

Disclaimers:

This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!

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How is this judged? How long do they have to maintain it, how old do they have to get, etc.?

I'm used to seeing "longevity escape velocity" be a question about life expectancy statistics, not individuals.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Hot take: One person attending Foresight 2023 Vision Weekend will achieve LEV

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Aging is likely to be cured in the 10 years after AGI, so this question is at least roughly P(we survive AGI) * P(AGI pre 2120), ignoring other existential risks.

predicts YES

@Nikola which basically collapses to P(we survive AGI)

@Nikola Not entirely correct, it is P(AGI is possible for humanity to create) Û P(survive AGI) Û P(AGI doesn't somehow prevent research even if it keeps humans alive) Û P(Aging cured within given timeframe)

Now I happen to believe that aging will be sufficiently cured to allow L.E.V. with high certainty this century,
assuming that AGI does not happen,
AND
that Aligned AGI will cause aging to be cured much faster
but you must account for all of these additional assumptions baked into your presumed outcomes.